Friday Big Picture Report Archive

May 26th 2017

SOx and BWTS regulations Our scrap forecast explained

Last week’s scrap forecast, in which we calculated the extent to which regulations on ballast water and SOx would advance the retirement date of older vessels, was aggressive. As it turns out, a misreporting of our ‘old’ scrap estimate (which made it appear higher than it was) makes our new scrap forecast look more aggressive still. Understandably the numbers have generated a wave of questions from clients who want to understand the assumptions that underpin it. So here goes.

May 25th 2017

China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative Yi Dai Yi Lu

Last week the ‘Belt and Road Forum’ was held in Beijing, attended by 30 heads of state and senior officials from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and United Nations, to discuss China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative. We’ve had many questions on the topic and what it might mean for shipping so this week we take a cross-sector look at what we know so far and the key take-aways from the recent summit.

May 11th 2017

Queensland Port Congestion  After the storm

Cyclone Debbie made landfall in Queensland, Australia on March 28th, hitting the region’s coal mines and transport infrastructure. As a result, shipments from the world’s largest high quality coking coal region were severely disrupted. Via our monitoring of port congestion, we recorded a surge in the number of vessels waiting at anchor in the major Australian coking coal ports in recent weeks, having a knock-on effect on the market as a whole. As operations start to return to normal, we assess the initial impact and lasting effects on the market.

May 5th 2017

Newbuilding deliveries Build month as it stands today

We promised on outlook for CPP trades last week. Over the past 5 days we have added to our supply / demand model forecasts for trade in mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and VGO. We have added an estimate for the future volume of inter-regional CPP flows that can only be identified by tracking AIS vessel movements. We have calculated the distance these flows move to generate our estimate of dwt demand. We have compared this to our estimate of future supply, both with and without future orders. What we have not done – the curse of weekly report deadlines – is rigorously checked our numbers. As such we are not comfortable publishing our results today. Instead we will show you one key element of that study – how the existing orderbook looks by delivery month.

May 4th 2017

Policy Impacts on Freight Chinese economic policy is not all positive

Having reviewed some of the positive long-term economic and trade forecasts last week we take a look at the more immediate drivers of demand coming from China. This is timely given the way the freight market has been trending downwards and fears that the recovery over the past twelve months has been overdone. So do China’s macroeconomics still support the positive outlook for dry bulk we have been championing?

 

April 27th 2017

Economic Forecasts Global Growth

A number of major organisations have recently released updated forecasts for some of the key drivers for dry bulk freight. Not only is the overall growth trend positive, but in several cases growth forecasts have been revised upwards, indicating a degree of momentum behind the direction of the global economy and the demand side for shipping. So this week we present you key trends highlighted in some the economic reports we have been following. We’ve done the reading so you don’t have to…