Friday Big Picture Report Archive

November 9th 2017

Indian Coal Market Outlook Near Term Import Growth

India is the world’s second largest coal consumer behind China. Whilst China is making substantial gains in reducing coal as part of its energy mix, India is much further behind. Coal-fired power plants account for approximately 195 gigawatts (GW) of India’s 330 GW installed power capacity. Due to the time and cost it takes to build alternative sources of power, thermal coal’s portion of the Indian energy mix is unlikely to change substantially in the coming years.

 

November 2nd 2017

China’s Party Congress Implications for dry bulk

The recent Communist Party Congress in Beijing further strengthened Xi Jinping’s position as the party’s General Secretary for the next five years. The top job in the 19th Politburo’s Standing Committee (PSC), by implication, is also the leader of the world’s second largest economy; an economy that more than any other influences the demand for dry bulk commodities. Whilst the link between the political events in Beijing and the outlook for dry bulk shipping demand is far from obvious, there are a few clues to enable us to make some assessment.

 

October 20th 2017

Future ordering Building tolerance

Ask any tanker analyst what the weakest element of their long-term market outlook is, and they will probably point to their estimate of future ordering activity. For us, estimating future ordering is a collaborative effort. It involves our vessel data team, sale & purchase desk and many of their clients. But it all starts with a fundamentals-driven view on how many fresh newbuildings we believe the market can ‘tolerate’; a view that we lay out here.

October 19th 2017

Market Outloook Outlook

We have revised our demand outlook and with it our market balance. Our overall view of the market remains broadly unchanged from our last forecast — the recovery we have seen over the last 18 months will continue, with the cycle remaining positive over the next 3 – 4 years. However some of the changes we have made to our demand expectations, along with the evolving supply picture, mean that for some the path through the cycle will not quite as smooth as we were previously forecasting.