Tankers Archive

June 9th 2017

Tanker freight 2018 to 2020 The forgotten middle

Short of offering advice on seasonality, or the impact of specific events, shipping analysts can rarely shed much light on the short-term direction of freight markets. That’s why we have brokers. Our efforts lend themselves better to the longer-term view. But recently our analysis has focused on the world beyond 2020 when regulations on marine bunkers and the treatment of ballast water threaten to redirect cargo and push ships into early retirement. There is no doubt that this is important – no least in understanding how many newbuilding orders the market can tolerate over the next few months. But are we being too complacent about the bit in the middle?

May 26th 2017

SOx and BWTS regulations Our scrap forecast explained

Last week’s scrap forecast, in which we calculated the extent to which regulations on ballast water and SOx would advance the retirement date of older vessels, was aggressive. As it turns out, a misreporting of our ‘old’ scrap estimate (which made it appear higher than it was) makes our new scrap forecast look more aggressive still. Understandably the numbers have generated a wave of questions from clients who want to understand the assumptions that underpin it. So here goes.

May 5th 2017

Newbuilding deliveries Build month as it stands today

We promised on outlook for CPP trades last week. Over the past 5 days we have added to our supply / demand model forecasts for trade in mixed aromatics, light cycle oil and VGO. We have added an estimate for the future volume of inter-regional CPP flows that can only be identified by tracking AIS vessel movements. We have calculated the distance these flows move to generate our estimate of dwt demand. We have compared this to our estimate of future supply, both with and without future orders. What we have not done – the curse of weekly report deadlines – is rigorously checked our numbers. As such we are not comfortable publishing our results today. Instead we will show you one key element of that study – how the existing orderbook looks by delivery month.