Dry Cargo Archive

May 11th 2017

Queensland Port Congestion  After the storm

Cyclone Debbie made landfall in Queensland, Australia on March 28th, hitting the region’s coal mines and transport infrastructure. As a result, shipments from the world’s largest high quality coking coal region were severely disrupted. Via our monitoring of port congestion, we recorded a surge in the number of vessels waiting at anchor in the major Australian coking coal ports in recent weeks, having a knock-on effect on the market as a whole. As operations start to return to normal, we assess the initial impact and lasting effects on the market.

May 4th 2017

Policy Impacts on Freight Chinese economic policy is not all positive

Having reviewed some of the positive long-term economic and trade forecasts last week we take a look at the more immediate drivers of demand coming from China. This is timely given the way the freight market has been trending downwards and fears that the recovery over the past twelve months has been overdone. So do China’s macroeconomics still support the positive outlook for dry bulk we have been championing?

 

April 27th 2017

Economic Forecasts Global Growth

A number of major organisations have recently released updated forecasts for some of the key drivers for dry bulk freight. Not only is the overall growth trend positive, but in several cases growth forecasts have been revised upwards, indicating a degree of momentum behind the direction of the global economy and the demand side for shipping. So this week we present you key trends highlighted in some the economic reports we have been following. We’ve done the reading so you don’t have to…

April 6th 2017

Q1 Review-Freight Fundamentals A quarter to remember

Having started the year at a fairly positive level, rates took a tumble through Chinese New Year before racing ahead through to the end of March. Since then things have taken a bit of a step back, as have broader commodity prices overall, but sentiment in the market remains strong. Below we review some of the key drivers that have contributed to how the market has performed in Q1 and that will influence its path over the next few months.

 

March 30th 2017

Shipping Market Cycles Timing and Magnitude

A popular chart these days draws a dot for each shipping sector at some point along a curved line representing the peaks and trough of a hypothetical shipping cycle. Some sectors will be on the way down this  visual ‘wave’, or at its nadir; others will be on the way back up, or at its peak. In its simplicity alone it is a thing of beauty. Unfortunately it is unlikely to be more than a reflection of a sector’s recent performance relative to historical averages. It says nothing about the length or magnitude of each sector’s shipping cycle. But is there a way of  saying something that might actually be useful to a sector-agnostic investor without complicating the picture?

 

March 23rd 2017

Economic Growth in the Philippines Small Island, big imports

The economy of the Philippines grew by an impressive 6.8%  in 2016 and is off to a strong start for 2017. More impressive still is how this has driven the country’s dry cargo imports, which accounted for 26% of all intra-Asian trade growth last year. Coal imports in particular grew by 75% year on year, warranting a closer look into how shipping patterns have been affected and what future growth might look like.

March 16th 2017

Our Market Outlook Improving sentiment, supportive fundamentals

We recently updated our supply-demand model and while our overall forecast has only changed slightly, we are becoming increasing confident in the outcome we have been consistently flagging for the last 12 months.
Having been seen by some as too positive a year ago, we now see the risk as being that sentiment will over- take the underlying fundamentals. For while we remain positive on the market outlook, we caution that there are significant risks and that these are predominantly focussed on the downside.