Our updated forecasts represent a bit of mixed bag. The good news is our assessment of the fundamentals over the rest of the year, and the resultant price forecasts, see the market picking up significantly from where things currently stand, whether in the spot market or against the forward curve. Less positively, we have had to trim our forecast rates from the last set we produced, to account for the deepening impact of the US-China trade war, the slower outlook for the global economy and of course the outcomes of the Brumadinho dam collapse.
The tragic failure of Vale’s tailings dam at Brumadinho has been a key event in what was already a difficult start to the year for the freight market. But the dry market’s problems run deeper.