Friday Big Picture Report
Minor adjustments, but still positive
We have updated our market outlook and forecasts with our latest thinking on supply and demand. The more we look at the supply side, the more confident we feel for this year, though there is a slight cut to expectations further ahead.February 15th
Solar panels, Sorghum, Soybeans & Steel
At first glance, you would think the imposition of trade tariffs on washing machines and solar panels would be a total non-event for the dry bulk market. They are not exactly the sort of goods that get shipped in a Capesize after all. But when the two main protagonists in the dispute are worlds two largest economies, with both sides having a history of retaliatory action, it doesn’t take long for the shockwaves to be felt elsewhere.
The Bulk Carrier Orderbook
First, the good news...
Total deliveries into the dry bulk fleet for 2018 are currently marked at 29.9m dwt. This is the lowest level of newbuilding arrivals since 2006 and less than a third of the capacity added in the peak year of 2012, when deliveries totaled 96.7m dwt. It is also worth noting that deliveries this year are set to be 21% down on last year, which was already a 9 year low. For those who like their fleet expansion nice and slow, 2018 looks pretty promising.
Australia’s Iron Ore Ships
Big, but niche
A record 880 million tonnes of iron ore was shipped from Australia last year, almost all of it coming from three ports located within 185km of each other on the north coast of Western Australia. In theory this makes the stretch of coast between Dampier and Port Hedland the most important load area in the world for dry bulk shipping, but as we show below, there is a relatively small number vessels doing an awful lot of work.
Higher prices, less demand
Scrap prices have jumped recently as breakers attempt to attract tonnage to the beaches. Given the escalation of second-hand bulker values and charter rates, they will probably need to move higher still if they are to gain much traction in the near term.
Iron Ore in 2018
Like the freight market, iron ore prices have started the year well and maintained most of the gains made in Q4. But what lies ahead in 2018 for the key raw material, and what will the impact on freight be?
The Year Ahead
What are we looking at in 2018?
To start us off for 2018, we look at the drivers for the market, focusing on the economy, politics and key events that will shape the year.
- A Holiday Poem The Year in Verse December 21st
2017 in Review (Part 2)
Bigger and better
The second part of our review of 2017 is focussed on the supply side of the market. What has come? What has gone? And where do we see things heading?
2017 in Review (Part 1)
Looking back and looking up
With the end of the year nearly upon us, this week and next we present a review of the markets and their fundamentals, shining a light on what has been another extraordinary year for the bulk market.
Event Impact Analysis
- Indonesia looks to Black Sea for wheat imports February 14th
- Australian Government forecaster cuts sorghum output February 14th
- End of road-haulage dispute in Argentina signals recommencement of exports February 14th
- IMO moving towards ban on carriage of non-compliant fuel February 14th
- Regional extension of China’s steel industry anti-pollution measures February 14th
- South Korean coal imports January 24th
- Argentina reduces port docking costs January 24th
- Chinese industrial production declines January 24th
- Chinese coal production up January 24th
- IMF raises global growth forecast January 24th
Mid-Week Chartering Report
- February 13, 2018 February 13th
- February 6, 2018 February 6th
- February 20, 2018 February 2nd
- January 23, 2018 January 24th
- December 5, 2017 December 7th
- November 21, 2017 November 22nd
- November 14, 2017 November 16th
- October 24, 2017 October 26th
- October 17, 2017 October 20th
- October 10, 2017 October 11th
Contact Braemar Research:
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