Friday Big Picture Report
The Big Picture: Soybean trade wars
Since China implemented a 25% import tariff on US soybeans in July, we have seen major changes in the soybean shipping market. As the US harvests a record crop, its exports to China, the world’s second largest soybean trade last year, have ground to a halt. Meanwhile China has consolidated its dominance over Brazilian exports, displacing other buyers.
As a result, this season we are seeing new and unusual trades emerge as US soybeans fall in price and alternative export markets open up. This is likely to have a negative effect on demand in the short run, but in the long run, the changes have the potential to generate increased demand for bulkers.October 4th
The Big Picture: Port Congestion
Since peaking at more 550 ships at the end of June, the number of vessels waiting in ports to load or discharge has dropped by 22%, releasing 125 ships back into the market over the course of Q3, almost half of which were Capesize. This has boosted apparent supply at a time of record low vessel deliveries from the yards.September 28th
“Past performance is not indicative of future results” is the disclaimer attached to all investment advice. The same holds true for the freight market, but understanding historic trends can at the very least be a helping hand in understanding how markets might perform.September 13th
Economics & Trade
One to keep an eye on
Recent economic news hasn’t been brilliant. Stock markets, commodity prices and a number of emerging market currencies have seen falls in recent weeks, just as the freight market had started to pick up. As the headwinds from the USA’s trade policies blow stronger and growth forecasts are questioned, we look at three of the main stories and what their impacts on the freight market will be. There are certainly some issues to consider in the near term, though a major impact is not part of our base case.September 7th
Market Forecast Q3’18 (Part 2)
Expectations largely unchanged...
Last week we outlined some of the key drivers that are shaping our latest market forecast. This week we show the results of our models, with an overview of demand, supply and utilisation.
Market Forecast Q3’18 (Part 1)
Adjusting the outlook
We have just completed our usual quarterly update to our forward looking supply and demand model. There is not too much change to how we see 2019/2020 developing (we’re still bullish!), but now that we’re well past halfway through 2018 we have been able to fully incorporate a number of the key trends we have seen developing this year, which has helped us push up our near term forecasts.
Carmichael Coal Mine
Carmichael & its Relationship to Indian Coal Consumption
Adani’s proposed $16.5bn Carmichael coal mine will be Australia’s largest thermal coal mine, capable of producing an estimated 60 million tonnes per annum. The project continues to be heavily scrutinised due to the environmental risks associated with Abbot Point’s close proximity to the Great Barrier Reef. Following is a project update together with implications for the dry bulk shipping sector amidst India’s reliance on coal.
Global trade wars
Steel in the cross hairs
The global steel industry is plagued by concerns over a global trade war and is already starting to feel the impact of President Trump’s wave of new tariffs. The impact of trade wars on shipping is likely to be mixed with the Cape sector remaining buoyant off strong demand for steelmaking raw materials, while smaller sectors face a squeeze on internationally traded steel cargoes.
Iron Ore Shipments
The big iron ore miners have now all released their second quarter production reports. We take a look at their performance, and more importantly look at what the expectations are for the rest of the year and beyond.
Deal with it
No one will tell you (not with any conviction at least) what will happen when IMO 2020 kicks in. Nonetheless, the industry now trades FFAs, ships, cargoes and bunkers well into IMO 2020 territory. That uncertainty presents huge risks and rewards. Here we discuss some considerations for owners and charterers moving cargo in a 0.5% sulphur world.July 20th
Event Impact Analysis
- Global steel capacity set to rise when it should be falling September 14th
- Four major grain producers all report expected lower harvest September 14th
- Indian steel demand looking strong September 14th
- Saldanha to temporary close for iron ore exports September 7th
- Coking coal global supply looking tight in long term September 7th
- Brazil reports continuation of strong iron ore exports in August September 7th
- Australian grain production – a tale of two halves September 7th
- Indian Miners push for iron ore pellet exports August 31st
- Indian steel producers increase prices due to falling currency August 31st
- Thailand’s strong coal imports reflect growing SE Asian economies August 31st
Mid-Week Chartering Report
- October 16, 2018 October 16th
- October 9, 2018 October 9th
- September 18. 2018 September 18th
- September 11, 2018 September 11th
- September 11, 2018 September 11th
- September 4, 2018 September 4th
- August 28, 2018 August 28th
- August 22, 2018 August 21st
- August 14, 2018 August 14th
- August 7, 2018 August 7th
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