Since China implemented a 25% import tariff on US soybeans in July, we have seen major changes in the soybean shipping market. As the US harvests a record crop, its exports to China, the world’s second largest soybean trade last year, have ground to a halt. Meanwhile China has consolidated its dominance over Brazilian exports, displacing other buyers.

As a result, this season we are seeing new and unusual trades emerge as US soybeans fall in price and alternative export markets open up. This is likely to have a negative effect on demand in the short run, but in the long run, the changes have the potential to generate increased demand for bulkers.

Since peaking at more 550 ships at the end of June, the number of vessels waiting in ports to load or discharge has dropped by 22%, releasing 125 ships back into the market over the course of Q3, almost half of which were Capesize. This has boosted apparent supply at a time of record low vessel deliveries from the yards.

“Past performance is not indicative of future results” is the disclaimer attached to all investment advice. The same holds true for the freight market, but understanding historic trends can at the very least be a helping hand in understanding how markets might perform.

Recent economic news hasn’t been brilliant. Stock markets, commodity prices and a number of emerging market currencies have seen falls in recent weeks, just as the freight market had started to pick up. As the headwinds from the USA’s trade policies blow stronger and growth forecasts are questioned, we look at three of the main stories and what their impacts on the freight market will be. There are certainly some issues to consider in the near term, though a major impact is not part of our base case.

Last week we outlined some of the key drivers that are shaping our latest market forecast. This week we show the results of our models, with an overview of demand, supply and utilisation.

We have just completed our usual quarterly update to our forward looking supply and demand model. There is not too much change to how we see 2019/2020 developing (we’re still bullish!), but now that we’re well past halfway through 2018 we have been able to fully incorporate a number of the key trends we have seen developing this year, which has helped us push up our near term forecasts.

Adani’s proposed $16.5bn Carmichael coal mine will be Australia’s largest thermal coal mine, capable of producing an estimated 60 million tonnes per annum. The project continues to be heavily scrutinised due to the environmental risks associated with Abbot Point’s close proximity to the Great Barrier Reef. Following is a project update together with implications for the dry bulk shipping sector amidst India’s reliance on coal.

The global steel industry is plagued by concerns over a global trade war and is already starting to feel the impact of President Trump’s wave of new tariffs. The impact of trade wars on shipping is likely to be mixed with the Cape sector remaining buoyant off strong demand for steelmaking raw materials, while smaller sectors face a squeeze on internationally traded steel cargoes.

The big iron ore miners have now all released their second quarter production reports. We take a look at their performance, and more importantly look at what the expectations are for the rest of the year and beyond.

No one will tell you (not with any conviction at least) what will happen when IMO 2020 kicks in. Nonetheless, the industry now trades FFAs, ships, cargoes and bunkers well into IMO 2020 territory. That uncertainty presents huge risks and rewards. Here we discuss some considerations for owners and charterers moving cargo in a 0.5% sulphur world.