Friday Big Picture Report
The politics that have lead to China threatening to impose tariffs on imports of US soybeans have been covered widely in the mainstream press, so we wont attempt to cover the broader cause of the trade war here. And the important thing to remember of course is that so far it is just a threat, no action on tariffs has yet been taken. But if things do take a turn for the worse, what is the role of the US and Chinese soybean trade in the freight market?
The Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference took plac
The Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference took place in Perth, Western Australia at the end of March. We previously reported some of the headline issues, below is a deeper look into what was presented and our interpretation of what it means for freight.
- Weekly Market Report March 29th
Trump’s Trade War and The Scrap Market
Impacting Scrap Pricing and Trade
The United States is the leading exporting nation for steel scrap. While President Tump’s 25% levy on steel imports and 10% levy on aluminium imports grab most of the headlines, there are likely to be ripple effects on scrap pricing and trade.
Minor Bulk with Major Importance
We expect global grain trades to hit a new record high in 2018 with growth of 17.6 million tonnes. This comes on the back of successive years of record harvest and strong demand growth. But lying behind the expansion of agricultural trade and its seaborne demand is another commodity trade that is boosting shipping demand – fertili
Contracting in context
Two weeks ago we looked at how bulker contracting and the orderbook had responded to market cycles. Today we take a step back and look at how bulker ordering sits in the context of the overall shipbuilding market – afterall, the bulkers are competing for capital and shipyard space against tankers, container ships and gas carriers as well as the various more specialized sectors. So how does it all stack up?
Mineral Sands & Zircon
Outlook looking good
As the Lunar New Year celebrations come to an end and those who have recently spent time with their families head back to the office, then so news on the major bulks becomes rather thin on the ground. This provides an ideal opportunity for those minor bulks, that often get overlooked in the bigger scheme of things, to have their moment in the spotlight. One such commodity group is mineral sands which, by the scale and number of all the new projects under consideration, is definitely one to watch.
Contracting and the Market Cycle
Tracking the contracts
As we have highlighted previously that vessel contracting has picked up considerably over the past 8 months as the market cycle has continued on its upward trajectory. But how does contracting in the current market cycle compare to what has gone before? Are there any lessons from the past?
Minor adjustments, but still positive
We have updated our market outlook and forecasts with our latest thinking on supply and demand. The more we look at the supply side, the more confident we feel for this year, though there is a slight cut to expectations further ahead.February 15th
Solar panels, Sorghum, Soybeans & Steel
At first glance, you would think the imposition of trade tariffs on washing machines and solar panels would be a total non-event for the dry bulk market. They are not exactly the sort of goods that get shipped in a Capesize after all. But when the two main protagonists in the dispute are worlds two largest economies, with both sides having a history of retaliatory action, it doesn’t take long for the shockwaves to be felt elsewhere.
Event Impact Analysis
- Russian wheat exports up 41% April 11th
- Iron ore price differential contributes to Australian mining takeover April 11th
- Brazilian rail derailment further adds to C3 woes April 11th
- Plans to acquire Essar Steel proposes to double capacity April 4th
- Coal India increases output in 2017-18 financial year April 4th
- Australian Government outlook for iron ore prices not looking good April 4th
- US-China trade war hits iron ore prices April 4th
- Chinese Government outlines plans to impose tariffs on US soybeans April 4th
- Miners are still expanding production and upgrading their ore supply, and a number of junior miners are looking to enter the market March 22nd
- China is likely to move towards EAF production, rather than blast furnace, in the future March 22nd
Mid-Week Chartering Report
- April 17, 2018 April 17th
- April 10, 2018 April 10th
- April 4, 2018 April 3rd
- March 27, 2018 March 27th
- March 20th, 2018 March 20th
- March 13, 2018 March 13th
- March 6, 2018 March 6th
- February 27, 2018 February 27th
- February 13, 2018 February 13th
- February 6, 2018 February 6th
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